Prompted by the resurrection of the federal Liberal Party, discussion of separatism in Alberta and perhaps elsewhere in the West has revived. Alberta’s place in confederation has been described as a bad, even toxic marriage. Despite making an outsized contribution the country’s financial well-being the province gets little respect from the Laurentian Elite who run Canada. That was particularly true under the government of Trudeau II, whose policies seemed aimed at actively undermining Alberta’s growth prospects.
I’ll spare you the recitation of the details, like equalization payments, which have been thoroughly enumerated in recent months. Instead, let’s take a look at what an independent Alberta would need to put in place.
Currency: while some favour retaining the Canadian dollar, that would be a tough sell. If monetary policy wasn’t supportive with Alberta as a member of the federation, it could hardly be moreso with Alberta as a foreign country. Further, it would be difficult to claim independence while still tied in so fundamental way to Canada. Others have suggested adopting the U.S. dollar, as some countries have done when confidence in their domestic currency cratered. Again, Alberta would have no say in monetary policy. Or Alberta could create its own domestic currency, a sort of petro-dollar. With no track record on monetary policy, an Alberta-buck would be difficult to take seriously.
Military: Alberta would be starting with nothing. It was once suggested that an independent Quebec might seize the assets of the CAF in their territory; the pickings would be slim indeed in Alberta. The RCAF does have a presence, with CF-18s based out of Cold Lake. Such assets would be of questionable value given that the aircraft are past their expiration date. The federal government spends around $34 billion per year on a woefully inadequate military. Would Alberta really be willing to step up? It’s difficult to assert independence if you cannot defend your territory.
Governance: If Alberta had been a paragon of governance of the past generation there might be an argument that they could do it better than Canada has. Alberta has emphatically not been a paragon. The current ruling party is beholden to a vocal fringe who have taken over riding associations and have an outsize influence over policy. Premier Smith must constantly look over her shoulder lest what happened to Jason Kenney happen to her. Hardly an auspicious start for a “national” government.
Economy: the flagship of Alberta’s economy is the energy sector. It is a testament to visionary business people who, over the last century, created an awesome wealth generator. The oilsands alone produce around 3.5 million barrels of oil per day. Energy projects can cost many billions of dollars upfront, and payout over tens of years. The willingness to do that rests on confidence. Confidence that the regulatory environment will remain favourable over the life of the project. Confidence that the jurisdiction will be well administered. We’ve seen what the arbitrary regulatory framework under Trudeau II did to business investment in Canada. Homegrown businesses might have a romantic connection to the province of Alberta, but romance isn’t an answer for shareholders. Would a President Smith or Prime Minister Nenshi engender the confidence necessary to reassure capital?
Citizenship: Presumably everyone resident in Alberta on the day of independence would be a citizen. Would we give preference to Canadians wanting to immigrate? How would Alberta structure an immigration policy? Would people be willing to spend on the necessary bureaucracy? Roll out new passports? Would Albertans wanting to stay Canadian be forced to emigrate before independence? If only 1/3 of the population was truly committed to the independence project, how many people would Alberta lose? We know that the best and the brightest are the most mobile -- how much vital expertise would flee Alberta?
Courts: If Alberta adopted the Canadian Constitution as the basis for her legal system then the transition would be fairly seamless. Still, the court system nationally has been under resourced for years. Alberta would have to invest in judges, Crowns and other infrastructure.
Indigenous support: During the Quebec referendum debates the indigenous population was skeptical at best. Would the rights they have as Canadians be affected? And if Canada is divisible, why not Quebec? The Cree and Inuit population in Quebec might have opted to remain in Canada. Leaders of Alberta’s Treaty 6, 7 and 8 nations are, so far, decidedly against Alberta independence. Could anything give them the confidence that Alberta would treat them with more respect than Canada has?
Territory: Polls show that support for independence is stronger if all four western provinces were to join together in leaving Canada. It is conceivable that Saskatchewan might accompany Alberta out the door. Less likely that Manitoba could be persuaded to join. And no chance whatever the lower mainland of B.C. (where the votes are) would sign on. Without B.C. access to tidewater is out of the question.
Bureaucracy: Alberta would have to administer a national government with “national” responsibilities. The present bureaucracy would have to expend significantly. Not very “sexy” spending.
Grievances abound. Old-timers can recall what the depredations of Trudeau I did to national feeling, and Trudeau II’s reign is a very fresh memory. It’s not difficult to cultivate anger – I’m certainly not immune myself. It’s one thing to suggest the “Eastern bastards” freeze in the dark. It’s quite another to dive into the minutia of how to create a nation. And after getting the minutia in shape, there’s still the question of how to pay for it. Even if Alberta is paying a net $25 billion per year to belong to Canada (and that’s a high-end estimate), that wouldn’t likely cover the new expenses a sovereign Alberta would incur. In a potential referendum Albertans would need to put emotions aside and think hard about realities.